A world without peace: current military conflicts and their impact on Ukraine
Ukraine is not the only country that is currently at war. According to the Global Conflict Tracker website, there are now about thirty global military conflicts in the world. Woman has collected the latest information about the ones that are on everyone’s lips.
China and Taiwan: the struggle for independence
China’s struggle for the island of Taiwan has been going on for several centuries. Historians believe that Taiwan first came under full Chinese control in the 17th century during the Qing Dynasty. At the end of the 19th century, after defeat in the first Sino-Japanese war, they ceded the island to Japan. China then recaptured the island in 1945 after Japan’s defeat in World War II. But in mainland China, a civil war broke out between the Nationalist government forces led by Chiang Kai-shek and the Communist Party of Mao Zedong. This war ended in 1949 with the victory of the Communists, and their leader Mao Zedong took control of Beijing. Meanwhile, the losing party fled to Taiwan. With the support of the United States, they hoped for some time to return and liberate mainland China from the Communists. But the Communist Party was only strengthening its position all this time, actively developing nuclear weapons with the support of the Soviet Union. Therefore, in the early 1970s, the West and the USA could no longer ignore a nuclear country. Yes, the People’s Republic of China is recognized as one China. The US is forced to break relations with Taiwan. But they pass a special law that obligates them to provide assistance in case of external threats. That is, everything so that he could defend himself.
What does China want?
The return of Taiwan to China is a matter of prestige. Because the island positions itself as a true center of democracy, while China itself is a communist country. What’s more, unification will give China access to full dominance in the East China and South China Seas. After all, important cargo flows to Africa, Asia and Europe pass through Taiwan. China says it wants to return the territories under the principle of one country, two systems, which would guarantee Taiwan self-governance and broad autonomy. However, the vast majority of Taiwanese are against unification. After all, their life is safer and freer than in China. Secondly, the US is preventing it. The Americans see China as their main rival on the world stage. Therefore, they do not seek to strengthen the PRC by including Taiwan with its developed economy and leading position in the microchip market.
What is happening now?
Tensions between the countries began to rise due to the visit of US Congress Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in early August. China has promised to strike the island, which it considers its territory, if an American politician flies there. So, her plane was watched by thousands of people around the world during the landing. But so far, China has not resorted to serious steps, but limited itself to indignation and sanctions. And also – continued military training around Taiwan.
However, according to experts, China is currently not ready to conduct a large-scale operation to seize the island.
“ He is not ready for this technologically, not ready for this militarily. He lacks strength and means, and he is not ready, in particular, from the point of view of international relations. Because China would need the approval of the international environment or at least tacit consent to such a transaction. In addition, the PRC is currently experiencing a rather serious period. This fall, the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held, during which Xi Jinping’s leadership is expected to continue for the next five years and so on. And that’s why for now to start such a military operation, in which he will most likely lose, is of course unprofitable for the PRC,” – certain head of the Asia-Pacific section of New Geopolitics Yuriy Poita
How will the conflict between China and Taiwan affect Ukraine
Military expert Oleg Zhdanov believes that It is important for Ukraine to closely follow the events unfolding between China and Taiwan.
“If China takes military action, the United States will be forced to enter the war. It is very important for us: and whether they can Today, the USA is waging a war on two fronts. It will be a direct confrontation between China and the US, and we may find ourselves in the background here. This is very important for us – that’s why we have to watch and watch, ” Oleg Zhdanov emphasized.
International journalist, board member of the Ukrainian Association of Chinese Studies Oleksiy Koval believes that in the event of an escalation in Taiwan Ukraine may not receive weapons from the USA . It is also beneficial for Russia, which can cooperate more closely with China.
“It is important for Ukrainians to observe the events in Taiwan. If there is an escalation there, the US’s attention will shift there and we will not receive the weapons and support that were promised. Because the US has already reserved weapons for Taiwan. And if there is a conflict there, the weapons will go to Taiwan, not to Ukraine. Russian propaganda will also use this visit to make the story that the US despises China. Meanwhile, in Russia, they believe that the USA will push China into the arms of Russia, they say, we oppose the West and now we can do it together.”
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been going on for decades, as both countries have their own claims to some territories, such as the city of Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip. The West Bank of the Jordan River, on which these cities are located, is ancient Palestinian land, but Israel does not recognize this. However, representatives of Hamas and “Islamic Jihad” are trying to regain control over this territory.
The last major aggravation took place between the parties in May last year, when Palestinians threw stones at Israeli security forces after prayers on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. After that, the Gaza Strip attacked Israel with rockets and balloons with explosives. The Israel Defense Forces retaliated. The confrontation lasted for 10 days and eventually ended with a truce. Despite the agreement, the parties continue to periodically shell each other’s territories.
What is happening now
Tensions around the Gaza Strip resumed after the arrest of one of the leaders of the “jihad” Bassam al-Saadi on August 1. After that, escalation began on the border between Gaza and Israel. On August 5, Israel’s armed forces struck several militant targets in Gaza during Operation Dawn. Israeli strikes destroyed the military structures of “Islamic Jihad” and killed the main terrorist leader Taysir al-Jabari. The Israeli authorities justified these strikes by the need to prevent a major terrorist attack, which was planned by “Islamic Jihad” after the arrest of its leader. In response, terrorists fired more than 350 rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip. Bomb shelters for citizens have been reopened in the country, and 25,000 reservists have been mobilized.
What are the consequences for Ukraine
The development of the conflict between Israel and Palestine with new force is not a good sign for Ukraine. After all, it will divert the world’s attention from the war in our country. Moreover, armed escalation in Israel will reduce the flow of humanitarian aid. In particular, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia, Tel Aviv has supplied Ukraine with hundreds of tons of food, medicine, fresh water, and generators. Dozens of children with cancer and wounded soldiers were also brought to Israel for treatment. Currently, this will be impossible primarily for security reasons.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
Following the aggravation of the situation in Israel and the confrontation around Taiwan a new outbreak of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. This is the third hotspot in a row in recent weeks, which threatens to grow into military conflict
What preceded the conflict?
The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan began in the 1990s over the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the occupied Azerbaijani territories. In 2020, a new round of armed conflict took place. It ended with a cease-fire agreement. Armenia ceded swaths of territory it had controlled for decades, and Russia sent peacekeepers to monitor the truce. But despite the agreement, tensions in the region did not subside.
What is happening now
New clashes took place in early August. Fighting broke out in the area of the Lachin Corridor, the road that connects Armenia and the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh “republic”. The reason was Baku’s demand to the Armenians of Karabakh to leave this route and start using the new one, which Azerbaijan laid specially for communication with Armenia. After the Armenians made it clear that they were not going to do this, they announced the start of the “Retribution” operation in Baku, and partial mobilization in Karabakh.
Despite new clashes, a real war, like in 2020, is unlikely – I’m sure Armenian political scientist Oleksandr Iskandaryan:
“The factor that makes this war impossible is the very presence of peacekeepers, because in the event of a war, the Azerbaijani troops will have to kill Russians, and Russia cannot but react to it,” he reminds. – So far, this is a low intensity of fighting, and it is difficult to call it a war.”
What are the consequences for Ukraine
To hope that the Russian occupiers because of the events in Karabakh will reduce the offensive at the front – not worth it. Such an opinion military expert Petro Chernyk . According to him, Russia is not going to give up the South Caucasus. After all, the Kremlin believes that this is a zone of their strategic interests.
“Therefore, Moscow will be forced to redirect part of its resources, which could be sent to the war with Ukraine, to Karabakh.”
The conflict between Kosovo and Serbia
Kosovo and Serbia were on the brink of war. As you know, Serbia does not recognize the independence of Kosovo and accordingly does not recognize its official documents. Therefore, the authorities of a partially recognized country announced the same step. Prohibition of Serbian passports and number plates on the territory of Kosovo was supposed to enter into force on August 1 of this year. Such a decision greatly outraged Belgrade and the ethnic Serbs living in the north of Kosovo. On July 31, people protested, and sirens and gunshots rang out on the border between Serbia and the partially recognized country of Kosovo. However, after a tense night of negotiations, the decision that triggered the escalation was postponed for a month. A new outbreak may occur as early as September 1.
Countries in which there is also unrest
Despite the temporary lull, Syria, Yemen, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Sri Lanka are also at risk of resuming civil wars. Overall, according to the UN, as of May 2022, more than 100 million people worldwide have become temporarily displaced as a result of war, persecution and violence. Meanwhile, food shortages, inflation and the climate crisis are exacerbating people’s hardships and further destabilizing these regions.
Text: Yevgenia Vlasenko
Photo: Pexels
